A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
