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It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough query to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.